AUD/USD Weekly Outlook

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AUD/USD’s consolidation from 0.7040 extended last week. While there was a dip to 0.7088 after hitting 0.7159, the pair quickly recovered on lack of follow through selling. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Above 0.7159 will extend the correction. But upside should be limited well below 0.7314 resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.7088 minor support will bring retest of 0.7040 low first. Decisive break there will resume recent down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.7676 to 0.7084 from 0.7314 at 0.6948 next.



In the bigger picture, fall from 0.8135 is tentatively treated as resuming long term down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high). Decisive break of 0.6826 will target 0.6008 key support next (2008 low). However, break of 0.7500 support turned resistance will argue that the corrective pattern from 0.6826 is going to extend with another rising leg before completion.

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In the longer term picture, the corrective structure of rebound from 0.6826 (2016 low) to 0.8135, and the failure to break 38.2% retracement of 1.1079 (2011 high) to 0.6826 at 0.8451, carry bearish implications. AUD/USD was also rejected by 55 month EMA. Now, the down trend from 1.1079 is in favor to extend. On break of 0.6826, next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1079 to 0.6826 from 0.8135 at 0.5507.

 
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