GBPUSD Outlook: Bears Keep Control But Need Firm Break Below Monday’s Low

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Cable attacks 1.31 support after recovery attempts stalled at 1.3130 (broken Fibo 38.2% of 1.2921/1.3257 upleg), as dollar returns to bullish path for extension of hawkish Fed-inspired rally. The pound initially showed mild reaction on significantly weaker UK retail sales (Sep m/m -0.8% vs -0.4% f/c / core Sep m/m -0.8% vs -0.4% f/c), but bears are taking control after markets digested data and Brexit talks continue without any significant result. Weak studies on lower timeframes support fresh weakness which requires close below 1.2083 (Monday’s low) to generate fresh bearish signal for extension towards 1.3050 (Fibo 61.8% of 1.2921/1.3257) and 1.3012 (daily cloud top), but conflicting daily indicators (flat momentum / RSI; mixed MA’s) lack clearer direction signal. Limited upticks (under 10SMA at 1.3144) are required to keep near-term bearish bias.

Res: 1.3103; 1.3137; 1.3143; 1.3192
Sup: 1.3075; 1.3050; 1.3012; 1.3000

 
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