Global growth expected to slow down in 2019

My FX Forum

Staff member
According to a survey among economists, the global economy growth outlook for the next year has dimmed for the first time. Analysts believe that the reason for this is the protracted trade war between the United States and China, as well as the tightening of financial conditions.

At the beginning of this year, most economists, by contrast, remained optimistic about the global economy. However, the outlook was changed in October 2018. Reuters conducted a survey among more than 500 economists. The results showed that the growth forecast for 18 of 44 economies was revised down. At the same time, the forecast for 23 economies remained unchanged, while the forecast for only 3 economies was improved. Significant changes in growth forecasts followed a grand sell-off in financial markets, mainly in emerging markets. Most economists say the main reason for the slowdown in global economic growth is the escalation of the US-China trade disputes, as well as the tightening of financial conditions associated with the sell-off on global stock markets.

In the outgoing year, the growth of the global economy was unchanged, remaining at the level of 3.8%. As for the consensus forecast for 2019, experts predict growth of only 3.6%. This figure does not match the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which expects global growth at 3.7% in 2019.