USDJPY Outlook: Bullish Outlook above 200WMA But Initial Signs of Pullback Require Caution

My FX Forum

Staff member
The dollar edged lower after US jobs data but dips were contained at 113.63 (Thursday’s low) and just above initial support at 113.52 (rising 10SMA).

Despite headline payrolls missed forecast in Sep, overall picture is positive as upward revision of previous month’s figure offset stronger negative impact, while earnings remain solid and unemployment fell to multi-decade low.

Broken weekly 200SMA is a key support (113.18) and weekly close above would generate fresh bullish signal.

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However, risk of deeper pullback on break below 200WMA exists as weekly slow stochastic turning lower in overbought territory and the pair is likely to end week in Doji weekly candle with long upper shadow, which could be initial negative signal.

Watch pivots at 113.18 (200WMA) and 114.73 (06 Nov 2017 high) for stronger direction signals.

Res: 114.10; 114.54; 114.73; 115.00
Sup: 113.63; 113.52; 113.30; 113.18